Workforce evidence challenge
Evaluating the workforce outcome.
Compensation trends do not prove workforce harm. Vacancy, hiring, attrition, proficiency, continuity, and replacement-cost evidence can test that hypothesis. No unavailable measure is treated as zero.
Last reviewed August 22, 2026
What the numbers show
- The current public dataset measures compensation, not workforce outcomes.
- Every requested workforce measure is marked Evidence needed until a dated primary source is available.
- A healthy-workforce claim and a mission-risk claim should be tested against the same evidence package.
Current evidence status
| Measure | Status | Minimum useful definition |
|---|---|---|
| Vacancy duration | Evidence needed | Median days open by occupational series and grade |
| Qualified applicants | Evidence needed | Qualified applicants per announcement, not raw applications |
| Offer acceptance | Evidence needed | Accepted offers divided by formal offers |
| Declined-offer reasons | Evidence needed | Coded reasons with compensation separated from other causes |
| Regrettable attrition | Evidence needed | Voluntary losses designated critical by a documented rule |
| Retirement eligibility | Evidence needed | Eligible incumbents by critical position and time horizon |
| Time to proficiency | Evidence needed | Time until independent performance by labor category |
| Single-incumbent risk | Evidence needed | Critical positions with one qualified incumbent |
| Replacement cost | Evidence needed | Civilian, contractor, onboarding, oversight, and transition costs |
What would count as evidence
Publish a dated extract, a precise numerator and denominator, the covered organization and workforce, exclusions, and the owner responsible for the measure. Aggregated data can protect employee privacy while still making the claim testable.
What would weaken this project's case
Consistently short vacancies, deep qualified-applicant pools, high offer acceptance, low regrettable attrition, resilient succession coverage, short proficiency timelines, and lower fully burdened replacement costs would all weigh against the project's workforce-risk interpretation.